Resumen
The North German Lowland is a region with locally high nitrate (NO3-) concentrations in seepage water, inducing an increased susceptibility to the effects of climate change. The future risk of rising NO3- concentrations in seepage water from forests was quantified for four regions in the North German Lowland using climate projections and a modelling system comprising submodels for forest stand development (WaldPlaner), water budgets (WaSiM-ETH), and biogeochemical element cycles (VSD+). The simulations for the period from 1990 to 2070 included three different forest management scenarios (reference, biodiversity, and climate protection) and showed a general decrease in groundwater recharge which could hardly be influenced by any of the management options. The simulated soil organic matter stocks adequately represented their past increase as expected from the National Forest Soil Inventory (NFSI), but also showed a future decline under climate change conditions which leads to higher organic matter decomposition and a long-lasting increase of NO3- leaching from forest soils. While the climate protection oriented scenario shows the highest increase in NO3- concentrations during the projection period until 2070, the biodiversity scenario kept NO3- concentrations in seepage water below the legal thresholds in three of four selected model regions.