Inicio  /  Atmosphere  /  Vol: 9 Núm: 11 Par: Novembe (2018)  /  Artículo
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Linear or Nonlinear Modeling for ENSO Dynamics?

Marco Bianucci    
Antonietta Capotondi    
Riccardo Mannella and Silvia Merlino    

Resumen

The observed ENSO statistics exhibits a non-Gaussian behavior, which is indicative of the presence of nonlinear processes. In this paper, we use the Recharge Oscillator Model (ROM), a largely used Low-Order Model (LOM) of ENSO, as well as methodologies borrowed from the field of statistical mechanics to identify which aspects of the system may give rise to nonlinearities that are consistent with the observed ENSO statistics. In particular, we are interested in understanding whether the nonlinearities reside in the system dynamics or in the fast atmospheric forcing. Our results indicate that one important dynamical nonlinearity often introduced in the ROM cannot justify a non-Gaussian system behavior, while the nonlinearity in the atmospheric forcing can instead produce a statistics similar to the observed. The implications of the non-Gaussian character of ENSO statistics for the frequency of extreme El Niño events is then examined.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Chih-Chiang Wei, Po-Chun Peng, Cheng-Han Tsai and Chien-Lin Huang    
Taiwan is located on a route where typhoons often strike. Each year, the strong winds accompanying typhoons are a substantial threat and cause significant damage. However, because the terrains of high mountains in Taiwan vary greatly, when a typhoon pass... ver más
Revista: Atmosphere

 
Elizabeth A. Silber, Mihai L. Niculescu, Peter Butka and Reynold E. Silber    
Nitric oxide (NO) is a critical indicator of energy deposition in the lower thermosphere because of its formational pathways. Thus, it is important to constrain sources of NO, such as meteoroid generated hypersonic flows below 95 km altitude. This paper ... ver más
Revista: Atmosphere

 
Henrique Do Nascimento Camelo, Paulo Sérgio Lucio, João Bosco Verçosa Leal Junior, Daniel Von Glehn dos Santos and Paulo Cesar Marques de Carvalho    
This work proposes hybrid models combining time-series models (using linear functions) and artificial intelligence (using a nonlinear function) that can be used to provide monthly mean wind speed predictions for the Brazilian northeast region. These migh... ver más
Revista: Atmosphere

 
Hui Lin and Zhou-Jing Wang    
Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-at... ver más

 
M. CASTAÑEDA,M. GONZÁLEZ    
This paper describes the rainfall climatology in Argentinean Patagonia and faces with rainfall trends. Gridded precipitation dataset from Delaware University is used as an alternative data and they seem to reflect the same patterns that the observed o... ver más
Revista: Atmósfera