ARTÍCULO
TITULO

International Trade Price Index: A Leading Indicator for Indonesia's Inflation?

Wawan Kurniawan    
Kadir Kadir    

Resumen

As one of essential indicators in economy, inflation rate can be determined by several factors. One of these factors is price index other than CPI, representing price change, other at consumer level. Many studies have examined the effect of price indices such as Producer Price Index (PPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on inflation, including in Indonesia. However, in an open economy, the level of openness, which can be approximated by International Trade Price Index (IHPI), may also influence changes in inflation. In Indonesia, no studies still examine the nexus between ITPI and inflationThis study aims to examine the effect of price indices variables other than at consumer level, particularly ITPI, on inflation and whether we can use it as one of the leading indicators of inflation in Indonesia. The analysis results of the ARDL-ECM model show that all price indices variables simultaneously influence inflation. However, the effect of each variable partially on inflation in the short and long run varies. The speed of adjustment to return to equilibrium is 4.67% per month after the shock happened. Nevertheless, the effect of ITPI on inflation is insignificant, both in the short and long run. Thus, we can conclude that ITPI is not yet able to be a leading indicator of inflation in Indonesia. However, the result of this study must be carefully concluded since the use of time series analysis depends on the lag length and the number of observations included.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Henrique Correa da Cunha, Nursel Selver Ruzgar and Vikkram Singh    
Cultural distance (CD) is an important driver of foreign expansion strategy at the firm level. However, its effects can be more or less significant depending on the contextual characteristics of the host country, such as the quality of formal institution... ver más

 
Gertrude Muwanga     Pág. 33 - 65
The aim of the study is to develop a pool of policy variables (potential indicators) that can be used by policy makers to eliminate the gender gaps in labor force participation rates (LFPR) for the 15-64 age group (formal age group).  Granger-causal... ver más

 
Sheeba Kapil,Puneet Kaur Dhingra     Pág. 1 - 10
Indian enterprises have succeeded in climbing the ladder of outward M&A transactions and out performing everyone?s expectations post 1990s. This paper aims to recalibrate the empirical literature of India?s outbound M&A by considering the impact ... ver más

 
Salamatu Bellah Conteh,Yuan Yijun,Brima Sesay     Pág. 34 - 48
In its various publications, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has vigorously advocated the need for reforming African trade policy from inward oriented strategies to outward oriented ones. While most countries in Africa have long accepted the reform... ver más

 
Mela Yila Dogo,Osman Nuri Aras     Pág. 68 - 73
We analyzed the effect of volatility in the Naira-Dollar exchange rate on the volume of imports to and exports from Nigeria between 1990 and 2019. Data for all variables, except volatility, were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the Nationa... ver más