Resumen
With the increasing use and complexity of urban natural gas pipelines, the occurrence of accidents owing to leakage, fire, explosion, etc., has increased. Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) models and Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, we put forward a quantitative risk simulation model for urban natural gas pipeline, combining with a multi-level grid-based pre-warning model. We develop a simulation and pre-warning model named QRA-Grid, conducting fire and explosion risk assessment, presenting the risk by using a grid map. Experiments show that by using the proposed method, we can develop a fire and explosion accident pre-warning model for gas pipelines, and effectively predict areas in which accidents will happen. As a result, we can make a focused and forceful policy in areas which have some potential defects in advance, and even carry out urban planning once more, rebuilding it to prevent the risk.