ARTÍCULO
TITULO

A Comprehensive Approach to Account for Weather Uncertainties in Ship Route Optimization

Roberto Vettor    
Giovanni Bergamini and C. Guedes Soares    

Resumen

This work aims at defining in a probabilistic manner objectives and constraints typically considered in route optimization systems. Information about weather-related uncertainties is introduced by adopting ensemble forecast results. Classical reliability methods commonly used in structural analysis are adopted, allowing to achieve a simple yet effective evaluation of the probability of failure and the variability associated with the predicted fuel consumption and time of arrival. A quantitative example of application is provided, taking into consideration one of the main North Atlantic routes.

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