Inicio  /  Applied Sciences  /  Vol: 12 Par: 12 (2022)  /  Artículo
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Natural Time Series Parameters Forecasting: Validation of the Pattern-Sequence-Based Forecasting (PSF) Algorithm; A New Python Package

Mayur Kishor Shende    
Sinan Q. Salih    
Neeraj Dhanraj Bokde    
Miklas Scholz    
Atheer Y. Oudah and Zaher Mundher Yaseen    

Resumen

Climate change has contributed substantially to the weather and land characteristic phenomena. Accurate time series forecasting for climate and land parameters is highly essential in the modern era for climatologists. This paper provides a brief introduction to the algorithm and its implementation in Python. The pattern-sequence-based forecasting (PSF) algorithm aims to forecast future values of a univariate time series. The algorithm is divided into two major processes: the clustering of data and prediction. The clustering part includes the selection of an optimum value for the number of clusters and labeling the time series data. The prediction part consists of the selection of a window size and the prediction of future values with reference to past patterns. The package aims to ease the use and implementation of PSF for python users. It provides results similar to the PSF package available in R. Finally, the results of the proposed Python package are compared with results of the PSF and ARIMA methods in R. One of the issues with PSF is that the performance of forecasting result degrades if the time series has positive or negative trends. To overcome this problem difference pattern-sequence-based forecasting (DPSF) was proposed. The Python package also implements the DPSF method. In this method, the time series data are first differenced. Then, the PSF algorithm is applied to this differenced time series. Finally, the original and predicted values are restored by applying the reverse method of the differencing process. The proposed methodology is tested on several complex climate and land processes and its potential is evidenced.

Palabras claves

 Artículos similares

       
 
Qiang Yang, Xiaojie Yan, Wenkai Chen and Juncheng Fan    
With the rapid development of the construction industry, there have been an uncountable number of damages caused by safety accidents at construction sites. Traditional safety management methods are no longer able to meet the needs of production. This pap... ver más
Revista: Applied Sciences

 
Alejandro Carmona-Rodríguez, Carlos Antón, Miguel-Ángel Climent, Pedro Garcés, Vicente Montiel and Alfonso A. Ramos-Esplá    
The ecological succession has been widely studied by means of biofouling assemblages among different substrates, and mainly targeted in early stages on artificial ones. The present study focuses on biofouling that colonizes carbonated structures, a mater... ver más

 
Lin Liu, Xiumei Zhang and Xiuming Wang    
The inversion of gas hydrate saturation is a critical procedure in the evaluation of hydrate reservoirs. In this paper, a theoretical model for a borehole acoustic wavefield excited by multipole sources is established for the first time. On this basis, t... ver más

 
Zhaoyue Ma, Yong Zhao, Wenjing Zhao, Jiajun Feng, Yingying Liu, Jin Yeu Tsou and Yuanzhi Zhang    
This study on total suspended matter (TSM) in the Pearl River Estuary established a regression analysis model using Landsat 8 reflectance and measured TSM data, crucial for environmental management and engineering projects. High coefficients of determina... ver más

 
Yizhou Zhuang, Xiaoyao Hu, Wenbin He, Danyi Shen and Yijun Zhu    
Landslides not only cause great economic and human life losses but also seriously affect the safe operation of infrastructure such as highways. Rainfall is an important condition for inducing landslides, especially when a fault and weak interlayer exist ... ver más
Revista: Water