Inicio  /  Forecasting  /  Vol: 3 Par: 4 (2021)  /  Artículo
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Different Forecasting Horizons Based Performance Analysis of Electricity Load Forecasting Using Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

Manogaran Madhiarasan and Mohamed Louzazni    

Resumen

With an uninterrupted power supply to the consumer, it is obligatory to balance the electricity generated by the electricity load. The effective planning of economic dispatch, reserve requirements, and quality power provision for accurate consumer information concerning the electricity load is needed. The burden on the power system engineers eased electricity load forecasting is essential to ensure the enhanced power system operation and planning for reliable power provision. Fickle nature, atmospheric parameters influence makes electricity load forecasting a very complex and challenging task. This paper proposed a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) with an association of recursive fine-tuning strategy-based different forecasting horizons model for electricity load forecasting. We consider the atmospheric parameters as the inputs to the proposed model, overcoming the atmospheric effect on electricity load forecasting. Hidden layers and hidden neurons based on performance investigation performed. Analyzed performance of the proposed model with other existing models; the comparative performance investigation reveals that the proposed forecasting model performs rigorous with a minimal evaluation index (mean square error (MSE) of 1.1506 × 10-05 for Dataset 1 and MSE of 4.0142 × 10-07 for Dataset 2 concern to the single hidden layer and MSE of 2.9962 × 10-07 for Dataset 1, and MSE of 1.0425 × 10-08 for Dataset 2 concern to two hidden layers based proposed model) and compared to the considered existing models. The proposed neural network possesses a good forecasting ability because we develop based on various atmospheric parameters as the input variables, which overcomes the variance. It has a generic performance capability for electricity load forecasting. The proposed model is robust and more reliable.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Evangelos Spiliotis, Fotios Petropoulos and Vassilios Assimakopoulos    
Forecasters have been using various criteria to select the most appropriate model from a pool of candidate models. This includes measurements on the in-sample accuracy of the models, information criteria, and cross-validation, among others. Although the ... ver más
Revista: Forecasting

 
Kate Murray, Andrea Rossi, Diego Carraro and Andrea Visentin    
Traders and investors are interested in accurately predicting cryptocurrency prices to increase returns and minimize risk. However, due to their uncertainty, volatility, and dynamism, forecasting crypto prices is a challenging time series analysis task. ... ver más
Revista: Forecasting

 
Brahim Belmahdi, Mohamed Louzazni, Mousa Marzband and Abdelmajid El Bouardi    
The adequate modeling and estimation of solar radiation plays a vital role in designing solar energy applications. In fact, unnecessary environmental changes result in several problems with the components of solar photovoltaic and affects the energy gene... ver más
Revista: Forecasting

 
Yannik Hahn, Tristan Langer, Richard Meyes and Tobias Meisen    
Deep learning models have revolutionized research fields like computer vision and natural language processing by outperforming traditional models in multiple tasks. However, the field of time series analysis, especially time series forecasting, has not s... ver más
Revista: Forecasting

 
Philippe St-Aubin and Bruno Agard    
The selection of an accurate performance metric is highly important to evaluate the quality of a forecasting method. This evaluation may help to select between different forecasting tools of forecasting outputs, and then support many decisions within a c... ver más
Revista: Forecasting