Resumen
In modern production systems, scheduling problems have to be solved in consideration of frequently changing demands and varying production parameters. This paper presents a approach combining forecasting and classification techniques to predict uncertainty from demands, and production data with heuristics, metaheuristics, and discrete event simulation for obtaining machine schedules. The problem is a hybrid flow shop with two stages, machine qualifications, skipping stages, and uncertainty in demands. The objective is to minimize the makespan. First, based on the available data of past orders, jobs that are prone to fluctuations just before or during the production phase are identified by clustering algorithms, and production volumes are adjusted accordingly. Furthermore, the distribution of scrap rates is estimated, and the quantiles of the resulting distribution are used to increase corresponding production volumes to prevent costly rescheduling resulting from unfulfilled demands. Second, Shortest Processing Time (SPT), tabu search, and local search algorithms are developed and applied. Third, the best performing schedules are evaluated and selected using a detailed simulation model. The proposed approach is validated on a real-world production case. The results show that the price for a very robust schedule that avoids underproduction with a high probability can significantly increase the makespan.