Resumen
Urban redevelopment is an important way for city evolution especially in metropolitans where the limitation of land resource becomes a bottleneck to farther development. However, redevelopment can bring a number of perturbations on transportation system, even though it improves the efficiency of land use. Many cases can be found to cause or exacerbate traffic congestion because of redevelopment especially in developing countries. Urban redevelopment scenario might be erroneous without accurate travel forecasting and traffic impact evaluation. To avoid the negative impact on traffic under redevelopment, an effective transportation model is needed to forecast accurate travel demand, and effective traffic impact evaluation measures are also needed based on output of the transportation model to compare scenarios and complete scenario planning. Developing countries often lack robust transportation planning models and effective evaluate measures to address urban development and redevelopment. In this paper, based on the differences of transportation system and travel demand forecast between urban development and redevelopment, we propose an integrated multimodal metropolitan transportation model to meet the requirements of urban redevelopment forecast, and develop an evaluation index system for scenario planning to compare traffic impact of urban redevelopment scenarios quantitatively. To illustrate recommendations for developing countries, we use state of Maryland in the United States as a case study to demonstrate forecast accuracy of the integrated transportation model and also show the traffic evaluation for redevelopment scenario planning. The results indicate that the integrated multimodal metropolitan transportation model can get better fitness and it is easy to assess which scenario can reduce traffic congestion using the evaluation index system.