Redirigiendo al acceso original de articulo en 22 segundos...
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

PRICE FORECASTING FOR FUTURE CONTRACTS ON AGRIBUSINESS THROUGH NEURAL NETWORK AND MULTIVARIATE SPECTRAL ANALYSIS

Carlos Alberto Orge Pinheiro    
Valter de Senna    
Alberto Matsumoto    

Resumen

This study aimed to compare the forecasting results from combining the two models,   Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA)  and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), with the results obtained from classical forecasting and neural network models for prices of agricultural future contracts traded on BM&FBOVESPA. The forecasting results of the proposed combination, compared with those obtained from classical forecasting and neural network models showed the best performance for price forecasting. The use of the error measurements and predictive statistical test for the step-ahead confirm this. The research can help market professionals in the development and implementation of risk management policies due to the relevance of price forecasting as a planning tool, in addition to being useful in market behavior analysis in specifying the price trend of future contracts.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Shishir Kumar Gujrati    
Stock markets are always taken as the barometer of the economy. The price movement of their indicesreflects every ups and downs of the economy. Although seem to be random, these price movements dofollow a certain track which can be identified using appro... ver más

 
Abbas Bagherian Kasgari, Keyvan Sheykhi     Pág. 1481 - 1495
This research investigates the relation between forecasting report disclosure and stock price fluctuations. The first hypothesize examine if there is a relation between two variables among companies which lead to fluctuation in the stock price and the se... ver más

 
Tafadzwa T. Chitenderu, Andrew Maredza, Kin Sibanda    
In this paper, we test the Johannesburg Stock Exchange market for the existence of the random walk hypothesis using monthly time series of the All Share Index (ALSI) covering the period 2000 2011. Traditional methods, such as unit root tests and autocor... ver más

 
Luis San Vicente Portes, Vidya Atal    
The Economist magazine has been publishing the Big Mac Index using it as a rule of thumb to determine the over- or under-valuation of international currencies based on the theory of Purchasing Power Parity since 1986. According to the theory, using the B... ver más

 
T. I?Ons,M. Ward    
AbstractThe effectiveness of the Price Earnings Growth ratio as a valuation tool has been a topical debate amongst analysts ever since being popularised by Lynch (1989). This study examines the appropriateness of the fair value criteria of a PEG of 1,0, ... ver más