Resumen
Air-fall pyroclastic deposits on steep slopes in Campania (Southern Italy) are periodically subjected to rainfall-induced landslides that may evolve into catastrophic flowslides. To protect built-up areas, early warning systems (EWSs) have been implemented which are essentially based on pluviometric thresholds or models unable to accurately monitor the physical phenomena responsible for flowslide generation in pyroclastic deposits. Over the last 20 years, landslides with no evolution in flows occurred in this area and the alarms generated by existing EWSs in the cases of rainfall were both false and highly costly, thus eroding public trust in EWSs. To improve existing EWSs, two complex models for pyroclastic soils (Cervinara and Sarno) are proposed in this paper. These two models allow correct simulation of the physical processes, such as saturation increase due to rainwater infiltration and mechanical degradation as far as undrained instability, which govern postfailure evolution. The paper concludes with the presentation of a framework proposal to be used in defining a soil database, as well as a framework for flowslide generation forecast to be used for implementation within EWSs.