Resumen
One of the top concerns for travelers when choosing public transportation is whether they can reach their destination in limited time and monetary cost on the basis of ensured reliability. However, the existing literature shows no studies on how to evaluate bi-objective multimodal accessibility under travel time uncertainty. In order to fill this research gap, this paper creates a multimodal super network based on smart card data in which the transfers among taxi, bus, and subway modes are developed and applied. Next, we propose a two-stage opportunity accessibility model to calculate bi-objective multimodal accessibility under travel time uncertainty. Then we propose a multimodal reliability path finding model and a reliability boundary convergence algorithm to solve this problem. Finally, we conduct a large-scale real-world case study. It is found that the impedance heterogeneity between different modes is significant, and multimodal travel has better accessibility than a unimodal one. Although multimodal accessibility decreases as the reliability increases, the advantage of multimodal over unimodal accessibility increases with reliability, and it can be improved up to 14.61% by multimodal transfers. This model can effectively guide traffic management departments to improve traffic accessibility in terms of time and cost and advise commuters to choose living places.