Resumen
Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset and a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model, this study assesses the possible influence of climate change in the upstream region of the Yangtze River on droughts in the future 30 years. Long-term daily soil moisture content were simulated by VIC model at a 50 km × 50 km resolution from 1951 to 2013. Regional historical drought events were then recognized based on soil moisture anomaly percentage index and validated with field data. Five relatively independent representative global circulation models were selected and the outputs of them were downscaled temporally and spatially as the inputs of VIC model for daily soil moisture content simulations both in the period of 1971?2000 for the present-day climate and in the period of 2021?2050 for the future. The results show that the projected annual mean temperature is likely to increase from 1.4 °C to 1.8 °C. The projected change in mean annual precipitation could be increased slightly by 0.6% to 1.3%, but the trend of precipitation change in summer and autumn might be opposite of that. Comparing the drought characteristics values recognized in 1971?2000, seven to eight additional regional drought events are likely to happen in 2021?2050. Drought duration and drought intensity are also likely to extend for 18 d to 25 d and increase by 1.2% to 6.2%, respectively. But, drought area could decrease slightly by 1.3% to 2.7% on average. These changes in drought characteristics values suggest that regional drought could become more severely prolonged and frequent in future.