Resumen
In the traditional studies on small-signal stability probability of a power system with wind farms, the frequency of wind speed was often assumed to obey to some extent a particular probability distribution. The stability probability that is thus obtained, however, actually only reflects the power system stability characteristics on long time scales. In fact, there is a direct correlation between the change of wind speed and the current state of wind speed, resulting in the system stability characteristics in different time periods having a great difference compared with that of long time scales. However, the dispatchers are more concerned about the probability that the power system remains stable in the next period or after several periods, namely the stability characteristics of the power system in a short period or multi-period. Therefore, research on multi-period small-signal stability probability of a power system with wind farms has important theoretical value and practical significance. Based on the Markov chain, this paper conducted in-depth research on this subject. Firstly, the basic principle of the Markov chain was introduced, based on which we studied the uncertainty of wind power by adopting the transition matrix and the wind speed-power output transformation model and established the probability distribution model of multi-period wind power. Then the boundary-based small-signal stability probability evaluation method was used to establish an evaluation model of multi-period small-signal stability probability of power system with wind farms. Finally, taking the power system with two wind farms as an example, we analyzed its small-signal stability probability and studied the influence of the initial states of wind speed and different periods on the probability of stability. This study provides a new method and support for analyzing the small-signal stability probability of a power system with wind farms.