Redirigiendo al acceso original de articulo en 16 segundos...
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Evaluation of Project Duration Uncertainty using the Dependency Structure Matrix and Monte Carlo Simulations

Edelmira Delfina Galvez    
Joaquín Bienvenido Ordieres    
Salvador Fernando Capuz-Rizo    

Resumen

The sequence of tasks is vital to the development of any project. Theorder of tasks is influenced by the information flow among them. Thedependency structure matrix (DSM) can be used to model informationflow. However, the information used by the DSM, including task duration,time required for communication, and task overlap, can have uncertainvalues. The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of uncertaintyon the scheduling of tasks using the DSM. Monte Carlo Simulation isapplied to represent uncertainty in time estimates for projects usingDSM. Conventional project duration, normal project duration withcommunication times, and normal project duration containing naturaloverlapping were considered for project time estimations. Severaldistribution functions were used to represent the uncertainty. It isconcluded that project duration has normal distribution behavior thatis independent of the type of input parameter distribution functions;that mean values of the input parameters give a good estimation ofmean project duration; that interval and inner interval arithmeticgive overestimation and underestimation of project duration timesrespectively.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Rafiu Oyelakin, Wenyu Yang and Peter Krebs    
Fitting probability distribution functions to observed data is the standard way to compute future design floods, but may not accurately reflect the projected future pattern of extreme events related to climate change. In applying the latest coupled model... ver más
Revista: Water

 
Maria Christoforaki and Oya Deniz Beyan    
The use of artificial intelligence (AI) applications in a growing number of domains in recent years has put into focus the ethical, legal, and societal aspects (ELSA) of these technologies and the relevant challenges they pose. In this paper, we propose ... ver más
Revista: AI

 
Pietro Vivalda and Marco Fioriti    
The growing environmental public awareness and the consequential pressure on every industrial field has made environmental impact assessment increasingly important in the last few years. In this scope, the most established tool used in the specialized li... ver más
Revista: Aerospace

 
Shuting Xu and Jinming Xu    
The construction of deep foundation pits in subway stations can affect the settlement of existing buildings adjacent to the pits to varying degrees. In this paper, the Long Short-Term Memory neural network prediction model of building settlement caused b... ver más
Revista: Applied Sciences

 
Yadi Wang, David Levinson     Pág. 469 - 496
The traditional mobility-oriented travel-time saving benefit assessment method has been repeatedly questioned for numerous intrinsic flaws, motivating the search for alternative benefit assessment approaches. Although a wealth of literature confirms the ... ver más