Variability of the standardized precipitation index over México under the A2 climate change scenario

Resumen

The 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to identify and assess drought severity in México during the 1949-2098 period under the A2 emissions scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The analysis indicates more frequent and severe drought events in México, shown by a negative trend of the 12-month projected SPI time series. Furthermore, this study concludes that projected future drought events would surpass the time-length, magnitude and frequency of those modelled during the second half of the 20th Century.