Redirigiendo al acceso original de articulo en 17 segundos...
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Volatility Estimation and Forecasting During Crisis Periods: A Study Comparing GARCH Models with Semiparametric Additive Models

Douglas Gomes dos Santos    
Flávio Augusto Ziegelmann    

Resumen

In this paper, we compare semiparametric additive models with GARCH models in terms of their capability to estimate and forecast volatility during crisis periods. Our Monte Carlo studies indicate a better performance for GARCH models when their functional forms do not differ from that of the specified Data Generating Process (DGP). However, if they differ from the DGP, the results suggest the superiority of additive models. Additionally, we perform an empirical application in three selected periods of high volatility of IBOVESPA returns series, in which both families of models obtain similar results.

 Artículos similares

       
 
Apostolos Ampountolas    
Over the past years, cryptocurrencies have drawn substantial attention from the media while attracting many investors. Since then, cryptocurrency prices have experienced high fluctuations. In this paper, we forecast the high-frequency 1 min volatility of... ver más

 
Anh Thi Kim Nguyen, Loc Dong Truong and H. Swint Friday    
This study employs OLS, GARCH and EGARCH regression models to test the expiration-day effects of index stock futures on market returns, volatility and trading volume for the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE). Data used in this study is from a daily retur... ver más

 
Massimo Guidolin and Manuela Pedio    
In this paper, we conduct a thorough investigation of the predictive ability of forward and backward stepwise regressions and hidden Markov models for the futures returns of several commodities. The predictive performance relative a standard AR(1) benchm... ver más
Revista: Forecasting

 
Joel Hinaunye Eita and Charles Raoul Tchuinkam Djemo    
This paper attempted to apply an EVT-based pairwise copula method for modelling risk interaction between foreign exchange rates and equity indices of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and to model the dependence structure of the underlying assets wit... ver más

 
Emmanuel Senyo Fianu    
Because of the non-linearity inherent in energy commodity prices, traditional mono-scale smoothing methodologies cannot accommodate their unique properties. From this viewpoint, we propose an extended mode decomposition method useful for the time-frequen... ver más
Revista: Forecasting