Acceso al sitio web del Consejo de Políticas de Infraestructura

   
Redirigiendo al acceso original de articulo en 22 segundos...
ARTÍCULO
TITULO

Forecasting The South African Business Cycle Using Fourier Analysis

Daniel Thomson    
Gary van Vuuren    

Resumen

A Fourier transform analysis is proposed to determine the duration of the South African business cycle, measured using log changes in nominal gross domestic product (GDP). The most prominent cycle (two smaller, but significant, cycles are also present in the time series) is found to be 7.1 years, confirmed using Empirical Mode Decomposition. The three dominant cycles are used to estimate a 3.5 year forecast of log monthly nominal GDP and these forecasts compared to observed (historical) data. Promising forecast potential is found with this significantly-reduced number of cycle components than embedded in the original series. Fourier analysis is effective in estimating the length of the business cycle, as well as in determining the current position (phase) of the economy in the business cycle.

PÁGINAS

 Artículos similares

       
 
Ali Babikir,Henry Mwambi    
AbstractIn this paper we introduce a new model that uses the dynamic factor model (DFM) framework combined with artificial neural network (ANN) analysis, which accommodates a large cross-section of financial and macroeconomic time series for forecasting.... ver más

 
Chun-Kai Huang, Knowledge Chinhamu, Chun-Sung Huang, Jahvaid Hammujuddy    
South Africa is a cornucopia of mineral riches and the performance of its mining industry has significant impacts on the economy. Hence, an accurate distributional assumption of the underlying mining index returns is imperative for the forecasting and un... ver más

 
Gilbert Wesso    
AbstractIn this article the out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate determination is examined without imposing the restriction that coefficients are fixed over time. Both fixed and variable coefficient versions of conventional structural m... ver más

 
I. J. Lambrechts    
AbstractThe Cash Flow Statement (CFS) had been in use in South Africa since October 1988. It replaced the Statement of Sources and Application of Funds, which had been in use since 1973. In spite of the general acceptance of the benefits of the CFS and i... ver más

 
C. B. Calitz,E. V.D.M. Smit    
AbstractIn the literature on forecasting, consensus has been reached about improved forecasting accuracy brought about by the combination of two or more forecasts for a given variable. No consensus, however, exists about the exact way in which the variou... ver más