Resumen
Spatial evolution can be traced by land-use change (LUC), which is a frontier issue in the field of geography. Using the limited areas of Koh Chang in Thailand as the research case, this study analyzed the simulation of its spatial evolution from a multi-scenario perspective on the basis of the 1900?2020 thematic mapper/operational land imager (TM/OLI) remote sensing data obtained through the transfer matrix model, and modified LUC and the dynamic land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE). Over the past 30 years, the expansion of recreation areas and urban and built-up land has been very high (2944.44% and 486.99%, respectively) along the western coast of Koh Chang, which replaced the original mangrove forests, orchards, and communities. Logistic regression analysis of important variables affecting LUC revealed that population density variables and coastal plain topography significantly affected LUC, which showed strong ß coefficients prominently in the context of a coastal tourist city. The results of the LUC and logistic regression analyses were used to predict future LUCs in the Dyna-CLUE model to simulate 2050 land-use in three scenarios: (1) natural evolution scenario, where a large patch expansion of agricultural land extends along the edge of the entire forest boundary around the island, particularly the southwestern areas of the island that should be monitored; (2) reserved area protection scenario, where the boundary of the conservation area is incorporated into the model, enabling forest preservation in conjunction with tourism development; and (3) recreation area growth scenario, where the southern area is the most susceptible to change at the new road crossing between Khlong Kloi village to Salak Phet village, and where land-use of the recreation area type is expanding. The model-projected LUC maps provide insights into possible changes under multiple pathways, which could help local communities, government agencies, and stakeholders jointly allocate resource planning in a systematic way, so that the development of various infrastructures to realize the potential impact on the environment is a sustainable coastal tourist city development.