Resumen
This study estimated the amount of bilge water spilled from ships during normal operation and identified the contributing factors of the discharge by building a statistical model. To build the statistical model, we collected as much information as possible about the amount of bilge water in ships, then used the collected information to formulate a probability distribution of the discharge amount according to Bayesian statistics, and determined the parameters included in the model by applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The analysis of those parameters shows that the integrated bilge treatment system (IBTS) primarily contributes to reductions in the discharge amount, and that the container-type ship is involved with especially large discharge amounts.